Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284070 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Eli Berman (0000-0002-4438-9105, UC San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA), Michael Callen (0000-0002-8408-1404, UC San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA), Joseph H Felter (0000-0001-9035-7107, Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA, USA), Joseph Felter (Hoover Institution), Jacob N Shapiro (0000-0002-7484-229X, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 496-528 |
| Publication date | 2011-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002710393920 |
| OpenAlex | W2169704614 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 97 |
| References cited | 25 |
Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces and (2) violence that kill civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces ( p < .05 percent). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. The authors identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts
Demographic economics · Development economics · Economic growth · Economics · Government (linguistics · Insurgency · Order (exchange · Political science · Politics · Unemployment · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
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Mobilization of Criminal Law by Business and State
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Farming then fighting
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Market Wages and Youth Crime
Institutions and Economic Performance
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The Logic of Violence in Civil War
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Iraq Body Count
Values and Public Policy
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Crime and Punishment
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Modern Warfare
| Unique citing works | 97 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,93 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2026 (15) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 97 |