Weakened by the storm
Rebel group recruitment in the wake of natural disasters in the Philippines
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3918628 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Colin Walch (0000-0001-8988-3249, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University & Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 336-350 |
| Publication date | 2018-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343317741535 |
| OpenAlex | W2300477290 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 55 |
How do natural disasters affect rebel group recruitment? Some influential research to date suggests that natural disasters - by lowering the opportunity cost of joining an armed movement - are likely to facilitate rebel group recruitment. In contrast, this study argues that natural disasters can negatively affect rebel organization and their recruitment efforts. It posits that natural disasters may weaken rebel groups in two main interrelated ways: (1) by leading to acute scarcity for rebel combatants and supporters, weakening the rebel group's organizational structure and supply lines, and (2) by increasing government and international presence in areas where the insurgents operate. Empirically, this article explores these suggested mechanisms in two cases of natural disasters in the Philippines (typhoons Bopha in 2012 and Haiyan in 2013), which affected regions partially controlled by the communist rebel group, the New People's Army (NPA). Based on data from extensive fieldwork, there is no evidence suggesting a boom in rebel recruitment in the wake of the typhoons. Rather, the NPA was temporarily weakened following the tropical storms, significantly impacting the civil war dynamics in the Philippines
Affect (linguistics) · Boom · Development economics · Economics · Geography · Government (linguistics) · Natural (archaeology) · Natural disaster · Natural hazard · Political economy · Political science · Scarcity · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Storm · Typhoon · Disaster Management and Resilience · Engineering · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology
How Border Disputes Influence Disaster Response
Floods, communal conflict and the role of local state institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity
Contention, cooperation, and context
Conflict considerations in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s National Adaptation Plans
Climate change in the Horn of Africa
Where to draw the line? Climate change-conflict-migration-terrorism causal relations and a contested politics of implication
Conflict versus Disaster-induced Displacement
De-escalation and diplomacy
Implausible sovereigns and their organizational logic
Environmental shocks, civil conflict and aid effectiveness
Trading peace for hazard management? peace agreement implementation and United Nations peace operations during natural hazards
How wartime recruitment affects political engagement among civilians
When conflict becomes calamity
Dynamics of organized violence in the wake of tropical cyclones
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War
Disaster resilience in conflict-affected areas
Does government response to natural disasters explain violence? The case of the Sendero Luminoso and conflict in Peru
Borderless Interventionism
The impact of climate variability on children
Aiding Recruitment
Rebel Fragmentation and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers
When Disasters Hit Civil Wars
Political consequences of natural disasters
Understanding the Disaster-Migration-Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World
A climate terrorism assemblage? Exploring the politics of climate change-terrorism-radicalisation relations
When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war
First comes the river, then comes the conflict? A qualitative comparative analysis of flood-related political unrest
Disasters and civilian victimization
Sustained Government Engagement Improves Subsequent Pandemic Risk Reporting In Conflict Zones
States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World
Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?
Environment, Scarcity, and Violence
Disaster Diplomacy
Winning Hearts and Minds through Development? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan
Greed and Grievance in Civil War
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Handbook of Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction
Climate–conflict research
Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States
Of Rain and Raids
Climate shocks and political violence
From Tremors to Talks
Fuel to the Fire
No Place to Hide
Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
Drought and Civil War in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Peace in the wake of disaster? Secessionist conflicts and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
Come rain or shine
Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004
Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict
Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines
Rebel Groups as Predatory Organizations
Desertion, Terrain, and Control of the Home Front in Civil Wars
Political Aftershocks
Draining the Sea
Coercion in Rebel Recruitment
The Business of Peace
Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict
Environmental influences on pastoral conflict in the Horn of Africa
Collaboration or obstruction? Rebel group behavior during natural disaster relief in the Philippines
Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Climate triggers
Climate change and conflict
Rice or riots
Economic growth and ethnic violence
Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa
The recruiter's dilemma
Does Supply-Induced Scarcity Drive Violent Conflicts in the African Sahel? The Case of the Tuareg Rebellion in Northern Mali
Don't blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict
Organizing Rebellion
What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good for
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
Snowball Sampling
| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,29 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 27 |