Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia

Bibliographic Data

ID3917580
AuthorsJustin V Hastings (0000-0003-4947-1535, Discipline of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney, Australia), David Ubilava (0000-0002-8993-6766, The University of Sydney, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume62
Issue6
Pages1714-1732
Publication date2025-03-18
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00223433241305990
OpenAlexW4408645064
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited58

We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands of Southeast Asia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents covering 376 one-degree cells across eight Southeast Asian countries, we estimate a general increase in political violence and a decrease in social unrest in croplands with rice production during the harvest season relative to the rest of the crop year. In a finding that is least sensitive to alternative model specifications and data subsetting, we estimate a 9% increase in violence against civilians in locations with considerable rice production compared to other parts of the region during the harvest season, relative to the rest of the year. We show that the harvest-time changes in conflict are most evident in rural cells with rainfed agriculture. Using location-specific annual variation in growing season rainfall, we then show that the harvest-time increase in violence against civilians occurs in presumably good harvest years, whereas increase in battles between actors of political violence follows growing seasons with scarce rainfall. The harvest-time decrease in social unrest, protests in particular, occurs after presumably bad harvest years. These findings contribute to research on the agroclimatic and economic roots of conflict and offer insights to policymakers by suggesting the spatiotemporal concentration of conflict as well as diverging effects by forms of conflict at harvest time in the rice-producing regions of Southeast Asia

Agriculture · Ancient history · Archaeology · Geography · Medical emergency · Poison control · Political science · Politics · Social conflict · Southeast asia · Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development · History · Human Factors and Ergonomics · Medicine · Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology · Transboundary Water Resource Management

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