Feeding unrest
Disentangling the causal relationship between food price shocks and sociopolitical conflict in urban Africa
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3918338 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Todd G Smith (0000-0003-1621-2721, The University of Texas at Austin, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 679-695 |
| Publication date | 2014-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343314543722 |
| OpenAlex | W2028351337 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 57 |
| References cited | 47 |
While both academics and politicians have long acknowledged the connection between food price shocks and so-called 'food riots', this article asks whether rising domestic consumer food prices are a contributing cause of sociopolitical unrest, more broadly defined, in urban areas of Africa. In order to unravel the complex and circular relationship between rising food prices and unrest, an instrumental approach with country fixed effects is used to isolate causality at the country-month unit of analysis for the period 1990 through 2012. Two instrumental variables, changes in international grain commodity prices and local rainfall scarcity, are evaluated and used individually and jointly as instruments for changes in domestic food prices. The main finding is that a sudden increase in domestic food prices in a given month significantly increases the probability of urban unrest, especially spontaneous events and riots, in that month. Undeniably, more fundamental economic and political grievances are also drivers of such events and are likely to determine how the unrest ultimately manifests, even when triggered by rising food prices. Although more research is necessary to determine why people choose particular protest methods and targets, the findings of this research provide evidence that sociopolitical unrest of different types is driven, or at least triggered, by a consumer response to economic pressure from increasing food prices regardless of the cause of the increase
Agriculture · Commodity · Development economics · Economics · Food prices · Food security · Geography · Market economy · Order (exchange) · Political science · Politics · Scarcity · Social unrest · Unrest · Agricultural risk and resilience · Energy and Environment Impacts · Market Dynamics and Volatility
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| Unique citing works | 57 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,75 |
| Citation span | 2014 - 2026 (13) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 56 |