Mayer's Alternative to the I-B Model

MV ayer's article is a useful further development and extension of our model of arms races and war initiation. He uses our general framework but varies either the conditions for deterrence or attack (linear alternatives) or the nature of the model (nonlinear alternatives) and finds in certain cases different conclusions with regard to the relationship between arms races and the initiation of war than in our model. The results of a theoretical model, of course, depend entirely on its assumptions, and a change in assumptions can change the results dramatically. Mayer's article is an exercise in such changes, some of which only slightly change our conclusions but others of which turn them on their head. For example, compare Figure 1, which is based on our article, and Figure 3, which gives diametrically opposite results. Remarkably enough, although Mayer's article appears devoted to criticizing the conclusions of our model, his variations on our model, in fact, support the main point of our article, which, as stated in our conclusion, is that

Econometrics · Economics · Extension (predicate logic · Mathematical economics · Point (geometry · Political science · Positive economics · Computer Science · Mathematics · Military Defense Systems Analysis · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

• An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace

  Open Access•GLENN HESS, G D Hess•Conflict Management and Peace…•1995

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