Pseudocontingencies

Bibliographic Data

ID10168141
AuthorsKlaus Fiedler (0000-0002-3475-0868, Heidelberg University, corresponding author), Peter Freytag
Year2004
Volume87
Issue4
Pages453-467
Publication date2004-10-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315
PublisherAmerican Psychological Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1037/0022-3514.87.4.453
PMID15491271
OpenAlexW4232439943
LanguageEN
Citations received9
References cited18

In 3 experiments, the authors explored a contingency illusion termed pseudocontingency (PC) that produces logically unwarranted but potentially useful inferences. PCs arise when bivariate contingencies are inferred from univariate distributions via heuristic alignment processes. For example, in the absence of information about the co-occurrence of TV habits and aggressive behavior within a school class, when the prevalence of both attributes is high, a teacher may infer a positive PC as if students who often watch TV were highly aggressive. Throughout 3 experiments, predictions of the level of 1 variable from the level of another served as a measure of PCs. The illusion could be evoked reliably whether information about target attributes was presented successively or simultaneously, whether common-cause or common-effect models were activated, and whether attributes involved 2 or more levels. The discussion centers on the cognitive processes underlying PCs and their origin and adaptive value

Bivariate analysis · Class (philosophy · Cognition · Cognitive psychology · Contingency · Contingency table · Heuristic · Illusion · Multivariate statistics · Statistics · Univariate · Value (mathematics · Variable (mathematics · Artificial Intelligence · Child and Animal Learning Development · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Mathematics · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology

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