How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10180321 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Evan K Rose (University of Chicago), Yotam Shem-Tov (0000-0001-6943-4737, University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 129 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 3302-3356 |
| Publication date | 2021-07-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/716561 |
| OpenAlex | W3184421526 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 70 |
We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina's sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism
Affect (linguistics · Criminology · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Prison · Recidivism · Regression discontinuity design · Sentence · Statistics · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Computer Science · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Healthcare Policy and Management · Mathematics · Psychology
A (Plea) Offer You Can Refuse
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| Unique citing works | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,75 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 11 |