A crisis of confidence? Business confidence reflects ruling party more than economic conditions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10362006 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas Jamieson (0000-0002-2716-5476, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, corresponding author), M A Von Below (Victoria University of Wellington), Merekara Below (Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand), Susan Jung Grant (0000-0002-8481-3046), Saskia Grant (Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 77 |
| Issue | 2-3 |
| Pages | 191-218 |
| Publication date | 2025-09-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-3187 • E-ISSN: 2041-0611 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00323187.2025.2581312 |
| OpenAlex | W4416067844 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 54 |
Business confidence, collected through surveys of business owners, is a widely used measure of economic performance. These measures play an essential role in shaping policy decisions, voter knowledge, and consumer behaviour. Yet in many countries, business interests are closely aligned with one political party. As a result, survey responses may reflect partisan orientations rather than objective assessments of the economy, potentially distorting their utility as economic measures. This paper examines that possibility in the case of Aotearoa New Zealand, demonstrating that survey responses reflect a systematic partisan bias. Using an original dataset of quarterly data from 1987–2024, we find that National-led governments systematically increase both the OECD Business Confidence Index and ANZ Business Confidence, while holding alternative explanations constant. Further, a National-led government explains 24.2% of variation of the OECD Business Confidence Index and 41.5% of ANZ’s measure of business confidence. These findings illustrate that the ruling party influences how business owners perceive the economy. Therefore, our findings suggest that journalists and policymakers may need to exercise caution when interpreting business confidence surveys for the public
Business history · Business management · Commonwealth, Australian Politics and Federalism · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Populism, Right-Wing Movements
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Partisan Preferences, Electoral Prospects, and Economic Expectations
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Partisan Bias in Surveys
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Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions
Partisan Gaps in Political Information and Information‐Seeking Behavior
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Partisanship and Economic Behavior
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |