Rivalry without War? The WTO and Institutional Change Beyond the Thucydides Trap
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10439211 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ivan Filipe De Almeida Lopes Fernandes (0000-0002-4236-4393, Universidade Federal do ABC, corresponding author), Luís Fernando De Paiva Baracho Cardoso (0000-0001-5253-1362, Universidade Federal do ABC), Elia Elisa Cia Alves (0000-0002-0434-7656, Universidade Federal da Paraíba) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 68 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2025-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0034-7329 • E-ISSN: 1983-3121 |
| Publisher | FapUNIFESP (SciELO) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1590/0034-7329202500113 |
| OpenAlex | W4417044238 |
| SCIELO_PID | S0034-73292025000100213 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 16 |
How do international institutions adapt to structural changes in global power? We examine the WTO amid escalating US-China tensions. The WTO, central to the post-Cold War order, faces a multidimensional crisis exacerbated by the trade tensions between these nations. We assess the Thucydides Trap crisis within institutional change literature through four pieces of evidence: (i) the case of non-recognition of China as a market economy; (ii) USA-China relations among 636 complaints in the DSB; (iii) data on the Appellate Body representation; and(iv) ‘trade war’ crisis and unilateral trade strategies. Findings reveal that US diplomacy undermines the institutional body from within, compelling institutional change by preferring discretion rather than rule-making, through conversion, drift, layering, and displacement, disrupting dispute resolution, blocking the Appellate Body, and implementing authoritative rule interpretation. As a result, the US increasingly bypassed WTO mechanisms, relying on unilateral strategies. This dysfunction weakens the multilateral trade regime, raising concerns over the WTO’s ability to regulate international trade effectively
China · Diplomacy · Discretion · Institutional change · Regime change · Rivalry · Trap (plumbing · Global trade and economics · International Relations and Foreign Policy · World Trade Organization Law
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The 2018 US-China trade conflict after forty years of special protection
Will America create a Cold War with China
China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics
Trump & Trade
The Politics of Compliance with Adverse WTO Dispute Settlement Rulings in China
Revisiting the fallacies in Hegemonic Stability Theory in light of the 2007–2008 crisis
Judicial Lawmaking at the WTO
United we stand and divided we fall
This Time It’s Real
Case Study Methods in the International Relations Subfield
The World Trade Organization and the Future of Multilateralism
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |