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Causal or Spurious Association

Bibliographic Data

ID10763565
AuthorsDavid S Kirk (0000-0003-0037-4291, The University of Texas at Austin, corresponding author), Derek S Hyra (Virginia Tech), Derek Hyra (0000-0001-8269-316X, Virginia Tech)
Year2012
Volume93
Issue3
Pages648-670
Publication date2012-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Science Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0038-4941 • E-ISSN: 1540-6237
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00891.x
OpenAlexW2320518683
LanguageEN
Citations received26
References cited28

Objective Aggregate crime rates continue to decline in the United States despite the depth and breadth of the current foreclosure crisis. This trend calls into question conventional wisdom and prior research that suggest a causal, positive relationship between foreclosures and crime. The objective of this article is to consider an alternative argument, that foreclosures and crime are part‐and‐parcel of the same community‐level dynamics, and thus are not causally related. Methods We use random effects models to analyze community crime and foreclosure data from Chicago between 2004 and 2009. Results Findings reveal that crime and foreclosures are spuriously related; controlling for confounding factors such as concentrated disadvantage and the political hierarchy of communities renders the foreclosure‐crime association nonsignificant. Conclusion Foreclosures and crime are each explained by antecedent community characteristics. To understand why social problems are unevenly distributed across geographic space, it is necessary to investigate why power and political influence are unevenly distributed

Argument (complex analysis) · Confounding · Criminology · Demographic economics · Disadvantage · Economics · Foreclosure · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Spurious relationship · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Homelessness and Social Issues · Law · Medicine

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Unique citing works26
Citations per year1,86
Citation span2012 - 2025 (14)
Citation velocityrecent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 23

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