Forecasting Provincial Business Indicator Variables and Forecast Evaluation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10859372 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Prem P Talwar (University of Alberta, corresponding author), Edward J Chambers (University of Alberta) |
| Year | 1993 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Pages | 1763-1773 |
| Publication date | 1993-12-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Urban Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0042-0980 • E-ISSN: 1360-063X |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00420989320081711 |
| OpenAlex | W2015747446 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 10 |
This paper evaluates a number of univariate and multivariate time-series forecasting models of selected indicator variables for three Canadian provinces: Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba. The out of sample forecasts from these models are compared not only with themselves but with common indicators from the quarterly provincial forecast model of the Conference Board of Canada. The concepts of directional accuracy, the conditional efficiency, and the robust regression are used in evaluating the forecasts. In most cases, the strategy of combining forecasts produced superior results to those given by the Conference Board of Canada
Consensus forecast · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Multivariate statistics · Regression analysis · Sample (material · Statistics · Univariate · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Grey System Theory Applications · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Highly cited | No |
|---|