The future of the Black Sea
More pollution in over half of the rivers
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10889477 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Maryna Strokal (0000-0002-8063-7743, Wageningen University & Research, corresponding author), Vita Strokal (0000-0001-6876-1111, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine), Carolien Kroeze (0000-0002-8954-6629, Wageningen University & Research) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 52 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 339-356 |
| Publication date | 2023-02-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | AMBIO (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0044-7447 • E-ISSN: 1654-7209 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13280-022-01780-6 |
| PMID | 36074247 |
| OpenAlex | W4294991265 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 55 |
The population in the Black Sea region is expected to decline in the future. However, a better understanding of how river pollution is affected by declining trends in population and increasing trends in economic developments and urbanization is needed. This study aims to quantify future trends in point-source emissions of nutrients, microplastics, Cryptosporidium , and triclosan to 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea. We apply a multi-pollutant model for 2010, 2050, and 2100. In the future, over half of the rivers will be more polluted than in 2010. The population in 74 sub-basins may drop by over 25% in our economic scenario with poor wastewater treatment. Over two-thirds of the people will live in cities and the economy may grow 9-fold in the region. Advanced wastewater treatment could minimize trade-offs between economy and pollution: our Sustainability scenario projects a 68–98% decline in point-source pollution by 2100. Making this future reality will require coordinated international efforts
Economic growth · Economics · Environmental planning · Environmental protection · Geography · Microplastics · Natural resource economics · Plastic pollution · Population · Sustainability · Urbanization · Water resource management · Ecology · Environmental Science · Environmental Science and Water Management · Microplastics and Plastic Pollution · Oceanography · Pollution · Transboundary Water Resource Management
River plastic emissions to the world’s oceans
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Building a global urban science
Global multi-pollutant modelling of water quality
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
The roads ahead
Eutrophication in a Chinese Context
| Highly cited | No |
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