Access Denied? The Sino-American Contest for Military Primacy in Asia
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11261771 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Norman D Anderson (0000-0002-5979-2220), Nicholas D Anderson, Daryl G Pre (0000-0002-1720-9463), Daryl G Press |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 50 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 118-151 |
| Publication date | 2025-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Security (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0162-2889 • E-ISSN: 1531-4804 |
| Publisher | MIT Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1162/isec.a.7 |
| OpenAlex | W4413359876 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 2 |
How has the balance of power shifted in maritime East Asia, and what does this change mean for the U.S.-China military competition in the region? We examine these questions by focusing on a central pillar of U.S. military might—land-based air power—in the context of a war over Taiwan. We create a new, unclassified, and transparent model of a Taiwan conflict, which allows users to explore multiple scenarios, alternative U.S. basing options, various People's Liberation Army attack strategies, and a range of potential U.S. defensive enhancements to see how those alternatives influence outcomes. We find that: (1) the United States' current approach to defend Taiwan exposes U.S. forces to significant risk of catastrophic defeat; (2) the U.S. Air Force's answer to this problem is both unlikely to work and escalatory; and (3) a combination of hardening air bases and enhancing missile defenses and local jamming at U.S. facilities is a better option. More broadly, U.S. national security policy toward China approaches an inflection point. The United States can lean in and significantly enhance the resilience of its forces in East Asia; lean back and rely more on instruments of military power that are less vulnerable to China's regional defense systems; or reconsider its broader geopolitical goals in the region. The current path, seeking to deter Chinese attacks with a vulnerable forward-based military posture, courts disaster
CONTEST · Political economy · Political science · Sociology · Global trade and economics · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |