Future Warfare in the Western Pacific
Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11261845 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stephen Biddle (0009-0000-8137-3201, Stephen Biddle is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations., corresponding author), Ivan Oelrich (0009-0007-4748-4080, Ivan Oelrich served as Vice President for the Strategic Security Program at the Federation of American Scientists, and is Adjunct Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University.) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 41 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 7-48 |
| Publication date | 2016-07-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Security (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0162-2889 • E-ISSN: 1531-4804 |
| Publisher | MIT Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1162/isec_a_00249 |
| OpenAlex | W2481341241 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 55 |
| References cited | 24 |
Many analysts worry that improvements in Chinese missile, sensor, guidance, and other technologies will enable China to deny the U.S. military access to parts of the Western Pacific that the United States has long controlled. Although these “antiaccess, area denial” (A2/AD) capabilities are real, they are a geographically limited long-term threat. As both the United States and China deploy A2/AD capabilities, a new era will emerge in which the U.S. military no longer enjoys today's command of the global commons, but is still able to deny China military hegemony in the Western Pacific. In this new era, the United States will possess a sphere of influence around allied landmasses; China will maintain a sphere of influence over its own mainland; and a contested battlespace will cover much of the South and East China Seas wherein neither power enjoys wartime freedom of surface or air movement. This in turn suggests that the Chinese A2/AD threat to U.S. allies is real but more limited than often supposed. With astute U.S. choices, most U.S. allies in this new system will be imperfectly, but substantially, secure
Ancient history · Battle · Battlespace · China · Commons · Denial · Development economics · Economics · Economy · Global commons · Hegemony · Mainland China · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Sovereignty · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · History · Law · Military and Defense Studies · Nuclear Issues and Defense
Grand Strategy and Technological Futures
Taiwan and the Danger of a Sino-American War
Security in the Asia-Pacific and signaling at sea
Political Spaces Beyond the Nation State
Continuity in Indonesia’s Strategy in the South China Sea Under Joko Widodo
Evolving concept of strategic autonomy in Europe and Asia
Maritime sovereignty and territorialisation
Cool your jets
High-Energy Laser Weapons
Parameters – Full Issue – Winter 2018-19
China's Nuclear Modernisation and the Dynamics of the Stability–Instability Paradox in U.S.–China Strategic Competition
Why Strategic Clarity Is Problematic for US Policy on Taiwan
Network Connections and the Emergence of the Hub-and-Spokes Alliance System in East Asia
The Deficiency Disparity
The effects of US–China competing strategies in Asia-Pacific on India and Pakistan rivalry in the South Asian region
Understanding spheres of influence in international politics
Strategic Security in Northern Europe
The coming high-tech Sino-American War at Sea? Naval Guns, Technology hybridity and the “Shock of the Old”
An A2/AD in the Western Mediterranean? Is Algeria developing anti-access/area-denial capabilities
Competition with China and U.S. defence strategy
The demise of the INF Treaty
U.S. Geopolitics and Nuclear Deterrence in the Era of Great Power Competitions
Switching sides
Leading sectors and polarity change in the context of US–China competition
AI-enabled remote warfare
Containment’s deceit
Between punishment and denial
American Discourses on China's Motivations for Naval Development under Xi Jinping
The Rise of the Chinese Navy
Denial strategy in Australian strategic thought
Towards naval normalcy
Washington's perceptions and misperceptions of Beijing's anti-access area-denial (A2-AD) ‘strategy’
Putting the “geo” into geopolitics
How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea
Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States
Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation
Active Denial
The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia
Escalation through Entanglement
Markets or Mercantilism? How China Secures Its Energy Supplies
Should the United States Reject MAD? Damage Limitation and U.S. Nuclear Strategy toward China
Anti-satellite warfare, proliferated satellites, and the future of space-based military surveillance
Signalling capacity and crisis diplomacy
Killing them softly
The rise of China, balance of power theory and US national security
Don’t judge islands by their sizes
Counter-intervention in Chinese naval strategy
Two kinds of catastrophe
Contest for Dominance
The legacy of Admiral von Tirpitz
By Fait Accompli, Not Coercion
Planes, Trains, and Armored Mobiles
A Granular Theory of Balancing
The Taiwan Strait
On the fungibility of economic power
China's Military Power
The Air-Sea Battle ‘concept’
Allies, Airpower, and Modern Warfare
Command of the Commons
Is There an Oil Weapon
Allies, Airpower, and Modern Warfare
Posing Problems Without Catching Up
Contested Primacy in the Western Pacific
Undersea Dragons
A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation
Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan
Strangulation from the Sea? A PRC Submarine Blockade of Taiwan
Stalking the Secure Second Strike
Stranglehold
Politics, Technology and the Revolution in Military Affairs
On War
The Cyber Threat to Nuclear Stability
Rhetoric and Reality in Air Warfare
When Does Aerial Bombing Work
When is Strategic Bombing Effective? Domestic Legitimacy and Aerial Denial
| Citations per year | 5.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2016 - 2026 (11) |
| Highly cited | No |