Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11291199 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mary Reader (0000-0002-2154-1813, London School of Economics and Political Science, corresponding author), Jonathan Portes (0000-0003-2273-602X, King's College London), Ruth Patrick (0000-0002-3284-6313, University of York) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 44 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Research and Policy Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0167-5923 • E-ISSN: 1573-7829 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5 |
| OpenAlex | W4408132409 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 26 |
We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature
Economics · Environmental health · Fertility · Limit (mathematics · Population · Sociology · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Medicine · Psychology
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| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |