Projecting Labour Market Imbalances and Skill Mismatch Under Demographic Change in the EU

Bibliographic Data

ID11294941
AuthorsGuillaume Marois (0000-0002-2701-6286, Shanghai University, corresponding author), Michaela Potančoková (0000-0001-6115-5952, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Agnieszka Bezat (0000-0003-2464-8437, Kozminski University), Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (0000-0003-3244-6560, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
Year2026
Volume42
Issue1
Pages4-4
Publication date2026-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEuropean Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0168-6577 • E-ISSN: 1572-9885
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s10680-025-09758-2
PMID41345323
OpenAlexW4417000250
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited37

We assess long-term labour mismatches in the European Union (EU27) by projecting the occupational distribution of workers and skill-specific labour demand up to 2060. Using a dynamic microsimulation approach ( Link4Skills-Mic ), we jointly model demographic, educational, and labour force dynamics at the individual level and combine country-specific projections of labour supply with projections of occupational demand. The analysis highlights growing imbalances: although the supply of highly educated workers continues to rise, shifts in demand are not evenly distributed across skill levels. Consequently, underutilization of high-skilled workers is projected to coexist with persistent vacancies in medium- and low-skilled occupations. Rather than indicating widespread labour shortages, these trends point to structural mismatches driven by the misalignment of worker qualifications, job characteristics, and hiring practices. To explore potential responses, we examine a series of policy scenarios such as expanded immigration, education reform, mid-career retraining, delayed retirement, and employer-led automation and upskilling. The findings show that, while certain policies can reduce specific mismatches, no single intervention closes all the gaps that emerge. Notably, automation reduces vacancies but increases underutilization, whereas human capital strategies shift mismatches across skill levels. These results suggest that addressing future labour mismatches will require coordinated, comprehensive and varied strategies that integrate demographic realities with evolving job demands in Europe’s ageing and increasingly digitalized and knowledge-based economies

Active labour market policies · Demographic change · Distribution (mathematics · European union · Human capital · Labour supply · Microsimulation · Point (geometry · Technological change · Digital Economy and Work Transformation · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality · Retirement, Disability, and Employment

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