The Uncertain Connection

Free Trade and Rural Mexican Migration to the United States

Bibliographic Data

ID11384259
AuthorsWayne A Cornelius (0000-0001-7173-2338, University of California San Diego, corresponding author), Philip Martins (0000-0002-8456-9725, University of California, Davis), PHILIP L MARTIN (University of California, Davis)
Year1993
Volume27
Issue3
Pages484-512
Publication date1993-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Migration Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0197-9183 • E-ISSN: 1747-7379
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/019791839302700301
PMID12287568
OpenAlexW2077076853
ISBN9791839302700
LanguageEN
Citations received12
References cited15

Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the United States, as the U.S. and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege? This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico. The available evidence suggests four major reasons why Mexican emigration may not increase massively, despite extensive restructuring and displacement from traditional agriculture. First, many rural dwellers in Mexico already have diversified their sources of income, making them less dependent on income earned from producing agricultural commodities like corn that will be most affected by NAFTA. Second, a free trade zone might induce more U.S. agricultural producers to expand in Mexico during the 1990s, creating additional jobs there instead of in the United States. Third, the links between internal migration in Mexico and emigration from Mexico are not as direct as is often assumed; even if economic restructuring increases internal population movements in Mexico, this may not translate into a great deal of international emigration. Finally, European experience teaches that free trade and economic integration can be phased-in in a manner which does not produce significant emigration, even under a freedom of movement regime. NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the U.S. labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico

Connection (principal bundle · Economics · Geography · International trade · Political science · Mathematics · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Migration, Ethnicity, and Economy

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