Assessing Candiate Preference Polling and Other Survey Research in Nicaragua, 1989-90
Comments on Anderson, and Bischoping and Schuman
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11623964 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John A Booth (0000-0001-8103-0292, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1994 |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 500-500 |
| Publication date | 1994-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2111416 |
| OpenAlex | W2331447187 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 4 |
Both Katherine Bischoping and Howard Schuman (1992) and Leslie Anderson in her comment here (1994b) note the confusion engendered by numerous and hotly debated preelection presidential preference polls conducted in the months before Nicaragua's 25 February 1990 national election. Certain polls (some overtly and publicly associated with opposition forces) predicted a comfortable victory for Violeta Barrios de Chamorro's National Opposition Union (UNO). In striking contrast, other polls conducted by experienced foreign survey research organizations, by nongovernmental Nicaraguan research groups, and by the Sandinista National Liberation Front's (FSLN) own pollsters wrongly predicted that FSLN incumbent Daniel Ortega Saavedra would easily win reelection. An important casualty of these poll wars was confidence among certain audiences in the very reliability of public opinion polling in Nicaragua and, even more broadly, in Latin America. Although relatively novel in Nicaragua until quite recently, surveys by scholars and public opinion research organizations had proliferated throughout Central America and Latin America in recent decades. Yet the highly publicized failure to predict an important election outcome by a number of sophisticated and experienced pollsters seemed by implication to call this entire methodology into question, at least in the region. The controversy presented by the AJPS includes some of the calmer and more reasoned efforts by scholars to understand the nature and causes of the striking discrepancies among the Nicaraguan preelection
Confusion · Latin Americans · National election · Opinion poll · Opposition (politics · Political science · Politics · Polling · Presidential system · Public opinion · Victory · Law · Politics and Society in Latin America · Psychology
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |