Pens and Polls in Nicaragua
An Analysis of the 1990 Preelection Surveys
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6230155 |
|---|---|
| Authors | K Bischoping (0000-0001-7637-1877), Howard Schuman |
| Year | 1992 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 331 |
| Publication date | 1992-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2111480 |
| OpenAlex | W2323698802 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 25 |
| References cited | 3 |
In order to understand the problems of interpreting political surveys in highly polarized societies, we analyze the results of 17 preelection polls carried out during the three months preceding the 1990 Nicaraguan election. We also draw on findings from a survey-based experiment on response bias administered in the last days of the election campaign. Both sets of data are used to explore five hypotheses that might account for the large inconsistencies between many of the preelection surveys and the actual election results: the volatility of the Nicaraguan electorate; serious problems in sampling a developing country in turmoil; effects of the administration or context of questions; intentional partisan bias on the part of polling organizations; and response effects due to the partisanship of the polls as perceived by the Nicaraguan population. Our analysis indicates that the main explanation for the failure of some polls and the success of others lies in an unusual interaction between respondents' vote intentions and the perceived partisanship of a poll. Paradoxically, bias on the part of a survey organization was necessary to reduce bias on the part of respondents
Context (archaeology · Demographic economics · Economics · Geography · Political science · Politics · Polling · Population · Sociology · Computer Science · Demography · Emergency and Acute Care Studies · Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology · Social Psychology
Conspiracy Theories and the People Who Believe Them
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Designing Effective Web Surveys
Circles of trust
“It’s Not That Simple, We Don’t Know the Whole Truth”
Survey Incentives
Pens, Polls, and Theories
Assessing Candiate Preference Polling and Other Survey Research in Nicaragua, 1989-90
The Polls—Review
The limits of democratisation in Asean
Expanding Discrimination Research
An Informational Theory of Privacy
Religiosity-of-Interviewer Effects
The Extended Case Method
The Inevitability of Future Revolutionary Surprises
Linking Preference Falsification and Election Fraud in Electoral Autocracies
Cushioning the Fall
Sponsorship Effects in Online Surveys
On the Outside Looking In
Enumerator Experiences in Violent Research Environments
Advances in Survey Methods for the Developing World
Neutrality and Bias in the 1990 Nicaraguan Preelection Polls
Why Do You Ask?’ The Nature and Impacts of Attitudes towards Public Opinion Surveys in the Arab World
Transition Shocks and Emigration Profiles in Latin America
Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections
| Unique citing works | 25 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,76 |
| Citation span | 1993 - 2026 (34) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 25 |