Jobs or jails? The crime drop in Texas

Bibliographic Data

ID11680567
AuthorsWilliam Spelman (0000-0003-2388-3603, The University of Texas at Austin, corresponding author)
Year2004
Volume24
Issue1
Pages133-165
Publication date2004-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Policy Analysis and Management (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0276-8739 • E-ISSN: 1520-6688
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1002/pam.20073
OpenAlexW2035996060
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited35

Crime went down throughout the U.S. in the 1990s. Potential explanations include demographic shifts, improved economic opportunities, changes in drug markets, evolving police strategies, and an increasing prison population. Previous attempts to parcel out responsibility among these explanations are unpersuasive. Some do not consider all of the explanations, others rely on highly aggregated data, still others confuse cause and effect. An analysis of Texas counties that deals with these problems shows that the Texas crime drop was largely due to increases in the jail and prison population; property crime also dropped due to increases in real wages and wealth and in public order arrests. Further prison construction would not be cost-effective in Texas due to declining marginal returns, but direct interventions to improve economic opportunities or make police work more proactive may be. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Criminology · Demographic economics · Economics · Order (exchange · Political science · Population · Prison · Prison population · Property crime · Public economics · Sociology · Violent crime · Work (physics · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Demography · Engineering · Gambling Behavior and Treatments · Finance

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