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Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara

Bibliographic Data

ID11916863
AuthorsCarlo Azzarri (0000-0002-0345-1304, International Food Policy Research Institute, corresponding author), Sara Signorelli (0000-0002-6256-3568, Paris School of Economics)
Year2019
Volume125
Pages104691-104691
Publication date2019-10-04
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueWorld Development (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0305-750X • E-ISSN: 1873-5991
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104691
PMID31902973
OpenAlexW2978447998
LanguageEN
Citations received42
References cited43

To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path

Consumption (sociology · Economic growth · Economics · Extreme poverty · Geography · Per capita · Population · Poverty · Socioeconomics · Welfare · Agricultural risk and resilience · Demography · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Income, Poverty, and Inequality

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Unique citing works42
Citations per year7
Citation span2020 - 2026 (7)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 41

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