Spatiotemporal analysis of heavy summer rainfall events across the Free State Province, South Africa
1981–2022
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21540488 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nicolle Loader (0000-0002-5586-5277, University of the Free State), Sarah Roffe (0000-0003-3683-8377, University of the Free State, corresponding author), Adriaan van der Walt (0000-0002-6102-2524, University of the Free State) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Pages | 1-19 |
| Publication date | 2023-10-30 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | South African Geographical Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0373-6245 • E-ISSN: 2151-2418 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/03736245.2023.2272894 |
| OpenAlex | W4388109802 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 61 |
Heavy rainfall events negatively impact agricultural productivity (e.g. crop damage) and human health (e.g. waterborne disease outbreaks). Under anthropogenically induced warming, South Africa may experience more frequent and heavier rainfall events during the summer wet-season. Evidence from point-based rainfall records suggests that such changes may already be occurring across many summer rainfall zone regions; however, the understanding thereof is spatially unresolved. Therefore, focusing on the summer rainfall zone Free State Province, we used the CHIRPS rainfall dataset for 1981/82–2021/22 to explore trends and interannual variability in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events for summer months (October–April). Interannually, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation had a predictable influence, with positive (negative) anomalies for the frequencies and magnitudes of heavy rainfall events during La Niña (El Niño) years. Despite few statistically significant trends, the results broadly depict increases (decreases) by up to 0.4 days/decade (−0.2 days/decade) in the frequency of smaller (larger) heavy rainfall events. More consistent trend results were evident for heavy rainfall event magnitude indices, with declining (increasing) trends, up to −2 mm/decade (5 mm/decade), evident over central (northeastern and southwestern) regions. Our results highlight regions vulnerable to changes and interannual variations in heavy rainfall characteristics, which can inform adaptation strategies
Climate change · Climatology · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Geography · Meteorology · Precipitation · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Precipitation Measurement and Analysis · Geology · Oceanography
| Highly cited | No |
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