Automated calibration training for forecasters
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12166116 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Eric R Stone (0000-0002-1126-1391, Department of Psychology Wake Forest University Winston‐Salem North Carolina USA, corresponding author), Jason Luu (Department of Psychology Wake Forest University Winston‐Salem North Carolina USA), Cory K Costello (0000-0003-3818-2738, Department of Psychology Wake Forest University Winston‐Salem North Carolina USA), Annie H Somerville (Department of Psychology Wake Forest University Winston‐Salem North Carolina USA) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Publication date | 2023-06-28 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0894-3257 • E-ISSN: 1099-0771 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/bdm.2334 |
| OpenAlex | W4382357961 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 39 |
In two studies, we investigated the effectiveness of an automated form of calibration training via individualized feedback as a means to improve calibration in forecasts. In Experiment 1, this training procedure was tested in a realistic forecasting situation, namely, predicting the outcome of baseball games. Experiment 2 was similar but used a more controlled forecasting task, predicting whether competitors would bust in a modified version of blackjack. In comparison to a control group without training, participants provided with calibration training had reduced confidence levels, which translated into reduced overconfidence and better overall calibration in Experiment 2. The results across both studies suggest that an automated form of individualized performance feedback can reduce the confidence of initially overconfident forecasters
Calibration · Competitor analysis · Confidence interval · Econometrics · Economics · Machine learning · Overconfidence effect · Statistics · Task (project management · Training (meteorology · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology · Sports Analytics and Performance · Artificial Intelligence
Calibration of probabilities
Confidence in judgment
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts
Knowing with certainty
Mini Meta‐Analysis of Your Own Studies
Calculating and reporting effect sizes to facilitate cumulative science
The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect
Know thyself
From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science
Insightful or wishful
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |