Remaining Loyal to Our Soil
A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12184754 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Martina Sartori (0000-0002-2794-0532, Joint Research Center, corresponding author), Emanuele Ferrari (0000-0003-0031-7190, Joint Research Center), Robert M’Barek (0000-0002-3205-3938, Joint Research Center), George Philippidis (0000-0003-1727-2240, Fundacion Agencia Aragonesa para la Investigacion y el Desarrollo), Kirsten Boysen‐Urban (0000-0001-7892-4324, Joint Research Center), Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Pasquale Borrelli (0000-0002-4767-5115, University of Basel), Luca Montanarella (0000-0002-4176-3878, Joint Research Centre), Panos Panagos (0000-0003-1484-2738, Joint Research Centre) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 219 |
| Pages | 108103-108103 |
| Publication date | 2024-01-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Ecological Economics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0921-8009 • E-ISSN: 1873-6106 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103 |
| OpenAlex | W4391176422 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 36 |
Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur. The headline result is that of a global economic contraction of up to 625 billion US$ by the year 2070. Moreover, soil erosion represents an acute challenge to food security in vulnerable regions (Africa and some tropical regions), where for certain crops (particularly oilseeds) the threat of shortages is potentially significant. Under the worst-case scenario, global primary agricultural production losses could amount to 352 million tonnes by 2070. Exploring different long-term socioeconomic-environmental pathways confirms the merits of sustainable management practises in coping with market and environmental stresses arising from soil erosion that limits the global increase of land used for food consumption to 115,000 km2 above the long run baseline. Finally, free (and fair) trade is essential to allow less affected regions to expand (marginally) their production, thereby cushioning the market tensions that are expected to occur in more acutely affected areas of the world
Agricultural economics · Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Economics · Food security · Geography · Land degradation · Land management · Natural resource economics · Sustainability · Sustainable land management · Aeolian processes and effects · Environmental Science · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Soil erosion and sediment transport · Ecology
The Impact of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in the Chernozem Zone of Ukraine
A Multiple Soil Threats Assessment for Europe by 2050
Control of Fissure Development on Soil Erosion in Karst Forestland Revealed by Simulated Rainfall Experiments
Spatiotemporal distribution of global wind erosion over the past four decades
Understanding agricultural market dynamics in times of crisis
Rethinking gender disadvantage
How does land transfer intervention promote farmers’ land investment? Evidence from China
Brasil y Maranhão en el tráfico de esclavos hacia el Caribe español, siglos XVI-XVII
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion
Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)
Restoring Soil Quality to Mitigate Soil Degradation
The representative concentration pathways
A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une theorie de la demande de produits differencies d'apres leur origine) (Una teoria de la demanda de productos distinguiendolos segun el lugar de produccion)
Soil Erosion, Conservation, and Eco‐environment Changes in the Loess Plateau of China
The GTAP Data Base
Future impact of climate extremes in the Mediterranean
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Land Subsidence in a Coal Mining Area Reduced Soil Fertility and Led to Soil Degradation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions
Distributional impacts of soil erosion on agricultural productivity and welfare in Malawi
Projections of soil loss by water erosion in Europe by 2050
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
The roads ahead
A linkage between the biophysical and the economic
The relevance of sustainable soil management within the European Green Deal
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |