Projecting long-term armed conflict risk
An underappreciated field of inquiry
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12263003 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sophie de Bruin (0000-0003-3429-349X, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, corresponding author), Sophie P de Bruin, Jeffrey Hoch (0000-0003-3570-6436, Utrecht University), Jannis M Hoch, Nina Von Uexkull (0000-0001-9492-1596, Uppsala University), Halvard Buhaug (0000-0002-6432-5985, Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Jolle Demmers (Utrecht University), Hans Visser (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Niko Wanders (0000-0002-7102-5454, Utrecht University) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 72 |
| Pages | 102423-102423 |
| Publication date | 2021-11-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Global Environmental Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0959-3780 • E-ISSN: 1872-9495 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423 |
| OpenAlex | W3173354327 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 39 |
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research
Armed conflict · Climate change · Economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Field (mathematics · Geography · Perspective (graphical · Political science · Regional science · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Term (time · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Computer Science · Transboundary Water Resource Management
Emergent Actors in World Politics
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation
Violence in Developing Countries
Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War
Groundswell
Civil War
When not every response to climate change is a good one
Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
What users of global risk indicators should know
Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics
Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Development Consequences of Armed Conflict
Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals
Income inequality projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data
Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset
Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-20501
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
War Is in the Error Term
Climate Change and Conflict
The Future is a Moving Target
Anticipating futures through models
Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.0
Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-65, using climate-sensitive models
Science-policy dimensions of research on climate change and conflict
Security implications of climate change
Do the robot
ViEWS
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,8 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2023 (3) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |