The 2008 Campaign and the Forecasts Derailed
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12376943 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James E Campbell (0000-0001-6901-6834, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2009 |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 19-20 |
| Publication date | 2009-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096509210353 |
| OpenAlex | W2102443300 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. On September 8, 2008, the Trial-heat Forecasting Model predicted that in-party candidate Senator John McCain would receive 52.7% of the national two-party popular presidential vote. The forecast of a victory of modest proportions for Senator McCain reflected his having a five-percentage-point lead over Senator Barack Obama in Gallup's early September, post-convention poll (49% to 44%) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis' August report of a 3.3% GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the year, about average for a second quarter election year economy
Convention · Economic history · Economics · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Quarter (Canadian coin · Victory · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · History · Law · Public Administration
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,14 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2016 (5) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |