Why the State-by-State Political Economy Model Did It Right
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12379415 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Bruno Jerôme (0000-0003-1399-8116, Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, corresponding author), Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (Université Paris-Sud) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 45-46 |
| Publication date | 2013-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096512001576 |
| OpenAlex | W2049973396 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 2 |
One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probability of victory by 64%. In 2012, it seems that this was enough to ensure a good predictability
Certainty · Democracy · Economics · Margin (machine learning · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Predictability · Presidential election · Presidential system · State (computer science · Statistics · Victory · Computer Science · Economic Theory and Policy · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Law · Mathematics
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,1 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2016 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |