Bruno Jerôme
Biographic Data
| ID | 3717554 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Bruno Jerôme |
| GIVEN NAMES | Bruno |
| FAMILY NAME | Jerôme |
| SIGNATURE | JEROME B |
| AFFILIATIONS | Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1399-8116 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 31 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 83 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 31 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1999 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
A Political-Economy Forecast of the Early 2025 German Federal Elections: Merz Wins but the Grand Coalition Is Back
In February 2025, German voters will vote for the fifth time since 1949 in early federal elections. In 1972 and 2005, the minority positions of Willy Brandt and Gerhard Schröder, respectively, in the Bundestag led to new elections. In 1990, the elections were triggered by reunification and the fall of the Berlin Wall. In 1983, the early elections were the result of a change of alliance by the Free Democratic Party (FDP). It is impossible to draw …
Forecasting the 2025 German Election: An Introduction
German federal elections have long drawn international attention due to the country’s economic influence and its pivotal role in the European Union. Over time, forecasting these elections has evolved into a sophisticated discipline, incorporating diverse models and refined methodologies to improve accuracy. Since 2013, PS: Political Science & Politics has played a key role in tracking these developments by publishing three special symposia dedica…
State-Level Forecasts for the 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump Back with a Vengeance
The outcome of the 2016 election made it abundantly clear that victory in US presidential contests depends on the Electoral College much more than on direct universal suffrage. This fact points to the importance of using state-level models to arrive at adequate predictions of winners and losers in US presidential elections. In fact, the use of a model disaggregated to the state level and focusing on three types of measures—namely, changes in the …
Municipal elections in France: Left trials of 2014 and 2020
Forecasting the 2022 U.S. House Elections with a State-by-State Model: No Red-Carpet Treatment for the Republicans
Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election: From a Left–Right Logic to the Quadripolarization of Politics
International audience
Introduction to Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election
International audience
Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election
International audience
Forecasting the 2021 German Federal Election: An Introduction
International audience
Forecasting the 2021 German Election: A Win for Armin Laschet
International audience
State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden
International audience
Villes de gauche, villes de droite: Trajectoires politiques des municipalités françaises de 1983 à 2014
À chaque élection municipale, certains commentateurs annoncent des résultats largement tributaires de la conjoncture nationale. D'autres affirment que le sort des élus dépend avant tout de la situation locale. Dans la perspective d’anticiper les basculements à gauche ou à droite lors de ces scrutins, les auteurs ont analysé les résultats d’un panel de 236 villes de plus de 30 000 habitants sur trente ans (1983-2014). Ils ont passé au crible les c…
Graduate Students & Special Programs Funded
An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button
The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time
International audience
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Patrimony, class, and participation: French elections (1988–2012)
State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Forecasting partisan dynamics in France and in Euroland
Why the State-by-State Political Economy Model Did It Right
One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probabili…
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel
Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, S…
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Comparing vote function simulations and vote intention polls
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Lessons from a region-by-region political economy model
Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model
Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of…
Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007
Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. …
The 2004 French Regional Elections: Politico-Economic Factors of a Nationalized Local Ballot
Reordering the French election calendar: Forecasting the consequences for 2002
French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French election forecasting, we show that the inversion brought great vote gains to the Socialist‐led coalition in…
Is local politics local? French evidence
In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really shaped by national forces? For the United States case, the evidence on this question is mixed. For the French case, the focus here, the evidence is also mixed, but less hard. In fact, for cantonal elections, in many ways archtypical local affairs, relevant systematic findings are virtually absent. We ask whether the cantonal elections of the Fift…
Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007
Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. …
The 1998 French regional elections: Why So Much Political Instability
A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential Election: A Way to Reduce Uncertainty
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel
Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, S…
The 2004 French Regional Elections: Politico-Economic Factors of a Nationalized Local Ballot
Les municipales de mars 2001: Vote récompense ou vote sanction ? Les réponses de l'analyse politico-économique
L'étude des élections municipales en France a rarement conduit à l'utilisation conjointe de déterminants politico-stratégiques et de variables économiques. La permanence du caractère unitaire du pays, en renforçant la spécificité des scrutins locaux, impose aussi de prendre la bonne mesure du degré d'autonomie dont jouissent les collectivités locales par rapport à l'État central. Les interactions politico-économiques locales n'ont jusqu'ici été…
Patrimony, class, and participation: French elections (1988–2012)
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Lessons from a region-by-region political economy model
Forecasting the 2022 U.S. House Elections with a State-by-State Model: No Red-Carpet Treatment for the Republicans
Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election: From a Left–Right Logic to the Quadripolarization of Politics
International audience
Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election
International audience
Forecasting the 2021 German Election: A Win for Armin Laschet
International audience
State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden
International audience
The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time
International audience
State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Comparing vote function simulations and vote intention polls
Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model
Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of…
Is local politics local? French evidence
In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really shaped by national forces? For the United States case, the evidence on this question is mixed. For the French case, the focus here, the evidence is also mixed, but less hard. In fact, for cantonal elections, in many ways archtypical local affairs, relevant systematic findings are virtually absent. We ask whether the cantonal elections of the Fift…
The 1998 French regional elections: Why So Much Political Instability
Les municipales de mars 2001: Vote récompense ou vote sanction
L'étude des élections municipales en France a rarement conduit à l'utilisation conjointe de déterminants politico-stratégiques et de variables économiques. La permanence du caractère unitaire du pays, en renforçant la spécificité des scrutins locaux, impose aussi de prendre la bonne mesure du degré d'autonomie dont jouissent les collectivités locales par rapport à l'État central. Les interactions politico-économiques locales n'ont jusqu'ici été…
Les municipales de mars 2001: Vote récompense ou vote sanction ? Les réponses de l'analyse politico-économique
L'étude des élections municipales en France a rarement conduit à l'utilisation conjointe de déterminants politico-stratégiques et de variables économiques. La permanence du caractère unitaire du pays, en renforçant la spécificité des scrutins locaux, impose aussi de prendre la bonne mesure du degré d'autonomie dont jouissent les collectivités locales par rapport à l'État central. Les interactions politico-économiques locales n'ont jusqu'ici été…
A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential Election: A Way to Reduce Uncertainty
Reordering the French election calendar: Forecasting the consequences for 2002
French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French election forecasting, we show that the inversion brought great vote gains to the Socialist‐led coalition in…
The 2004 French Regional Elections: Politico-Economic Factors of a Nationalized Local Ballot
Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007
Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. …
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Comparing vote function simulations and vote intention polls
Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Lessons from a region-by-region political economy model
Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model
Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of…
Why the State-by-State Political Economy Model Did It Right
One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probabili…
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel
Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, S…
Forecasting partisan dynamics in France and in Euroland
Patrimony, class, and participation: French elections (1988–2012)
State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time
International audience
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Villes de gauche, villes de droite: Trajectoires politiques des municipalités françaises de 1983 à 2014
À chaque élection municipale, certains commentateurs annoncent des résultats largement tributaires de la conjoncture nationale. D'autres affirment que le sort des élus dépend avant tout de la situation locale. Dans la perspective d’anticiper les basculements à gauche ou à droite lors de ces scrutins, les auteurs ont analysé les résultats d’un panel de 236 villes de plus de 30 000 habitants sur trente ans (1983-2014). Ils ont passé au crible les c…
Graduate Students & Special Programs Funded
An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button
State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden
International audience
Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election: From a Left–Right Logic to the Quadripolarization of Politics
International audience
Introduction to Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election
International audience
Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election
International audience
Forecasting the 2021 German Federal Election: An Introduction
International audience
Political science (28 works) · Law (22 works) · Politics (22 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (19 works) · Economics (17 works) · Law (17 works) · Political economy (16 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (13 works) · Presidential system (12 works) · Computer Science (10 works)