Voting after Watching

The Strategic Role of Election Polls

Bibliographic Data

ID12416533
AuthorsGherghina (0000-0002-6627-5598, University of Glasgow, corresponding author), Mihail Chiru (0000-0002-0811-5457, Central European University)
Year2012
Volume20
Issue2
Pages210-221
Publication date2012-03-30
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEuropean Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1062-7987 • E-ISSN: 1474-0575
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s1062798711000548
OpenAlexW2148420473
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited14

The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates

Ballot · Competitor analysis · Dilemma · Disapproval voting · Economics · General election · Management · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Romanian · Turnout · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Public Administration · Social Media and Politics

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