Outcome Trajectory Evaluation (OTE)
An Approach to Tackle Research-for-Development’s Long-Causal-Chain Problem
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12471137 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Boru Douthwaite (0000-0003-0018-4340, Selkie Consulting Ltd., Cushalogurt, Kilmeena, Westport, Co. Mayo, Ireland, corresponding author), Claudio Proietti (0000-0002-3969-288X, Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France), Vivian Polar (0000-0001-6004-6658, CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB), led by CIP, Lima, Perú), G Thiele (0000-0002-3739-0431, CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB), led by CIP, Lima, Perú) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 44 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 335-352 |
| Publication date | 2023-01-31 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Evaluation (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1098-2140 • E-ISSN: 1557-0878 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/10982140221122771 |
| OpenAlex | W4319842870 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 19 |
This paper develops a novel approach called Outcome Trajectory Evaluation (OTE) in response to the long-causal-chain problem confronting the evaluation of research for development (R4D) projects. OTE strives to tackle four issues resulting from the common practice of evaluating R4D projects based on theory of change developed at the start. The approach was developed iteratively while conducting four evaluations of policy-related outcomes claimed by the CGIAR, a global R4D organization. The first step is to use a middle-range theory (MRT), based on “grand” social science theory, to help delineate and understand the trajectory that generated the set of outcomes being evaluated. The second step is to then identify project contribution to that trajectory. Other types of theory-driven evaluation are single step: they model how projects achieve outcomes without first considering the overarching causal mechanism—the outcome trajectory—from which the outcomes emerged. The use of an MRT allowed us to accrue learning from one evaluation to the next
Causal chain · Economics · Epistemology · Management · Management science · Mathematical economics · Operations research · Outcome (game theory · Political science · Program evaluation · Range (aeronautics · Set (abstract data type · Theory of change · Trajectory · Complex Systems and Decision Making · Computer Science · Engineering · Evaluation and Performance Assessment · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
The Role of Agricultural Research in Policymaking
Actionable knowledge for agroecological transformation
Using Outcome Trajectory Evaluation to Assess HarvestPlus’ Contribution to the Development of National Biofortification Breeding Programs
Fixing the Wrong Failures? Why Security Sector Reform Fails Without Sound Theories of Change
Enhancing the use of impact evaluation results
The Science of Evaluation
Theories of the Policy Process
Program Theory-Driven Evaluation Science
All models are wrong
Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science
Using theory of change to design and evaluate public health interventions
Contribution analysis
Using theories of change in the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health
Outcome Evidencing
Social Theory and Social Structure
Understanding Process Tracing
A Necessary Dialogue
Causal Mechanisms in the Social Sciences
| Citations per year | 1.25 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Highly cited | No |