The Front-Runner Falls
The Failure of Howard Dean
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12546313 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dean Mcsweeney (Politics School, University of the West of England, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2006 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 109-126 |
| Publication date | 2006-12-06 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Party Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1354068806071266 |
| OpenAlex | W1988100163 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 13 |
From 1980 until 2000, two indicators successfully predicted presidential nominees in advance of the contest: the front-runner in the latest poll of party identifiers and the leader in fundraising in the previous year. In 2004, both indicators predicted Howard Dean to win the Democratic nomination and both were incorrect. In accounting for the failure of these predictions, this article shows that Dean was an untypically weak front-runner compared to his predecessors. His relative weaknesses included a lower level of support, a narrower lead and less name recognition. In competing against his opponents, Dean was vulnerable to the importance primary voters attached to ability to win the election and their lateness in deciding for whom to vote. These features of the contest disadvantaged Dean and enabled John Kerry to ride a bandwagon to a quick victory
Bandwagon effect · CONTEST · Democracy · Front (military · Nomination · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Victory · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Engineering · Law · Social Media and Politics
Change and continuity in the 1988 elections
The new Presidential elite
Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice
The Reasoning Voter
Super Tuesday
Consequences of party reform
Presidential Selection
Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election
Correlates of Vote Choice in the 1980 Presidential Primaries
The Front-Loading Problem in Presidential Nominations
| Highly cited | No |
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