Does Change in Risk Matter
Examining Whether Changes in Offender Risk Characteristics Influence Recidivism Outcomes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12776743 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas H Cohen (0000-0002-0427-950X, United States Courts, corresponding author), CHRISTOPHER T LOWENKAMP (United States Courts), Scott W VanBenschoten (United States Courts) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 263-296 |
| Publication date | 2016-01-22 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Criminology & Public Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1538-6473 • E-ISSN: 1745-9133 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1745-9133.12190 |
| OpenAlex | W2259051872 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 26 |
Research Summary The Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) is a correctional assessment tool used by federal probation officers that identifies offenders most likely to commit new crimes and the criminogenic characteristics that, if changed, could reduce the likelihood of recidivism. We explored how changes in offender risk influence the likelihood of recidivism by tracking a population of 64,716 offenders placed on federal supervision with multiple PCRA assessments. In general, offenders scoring in the high‐, moderate‐, and low/moderate‐risk categories at their initial assessment and experiencing decreases in their risk classifications were less likely to recidivate compared with their counterparts whose risk levels remained unchanged or increased. Conversely, increases in offender risk were associated with higher rates of reoffending behavior. Notably, we saw no recidivism reduction for offenders in the lowest risk category if they received decreases in their overall PCRA scores. Policy Implications This analysis provides officers with crucial information about how changes in offender risk can influence the likelihood of arrest. Probation officers should consider adjusting downward the amount of time and resources devoted to offenders with decreasing risk levels once those decreases have stabilized. Alternatively, probation officers should pay particular attention and allocate more resources to those offenders reclassified into higher risk categories. Finally, probation officers should be cautious about providing resources to low‐risk offenders who do not seem to benefit from efforts aimed at reducing their criminal risk factors
Actuarial science · Business · Commit · Computer security · Conviction · Criminology · Political science · Recidivism · Risk assessment · Risk management tools · Computer Science · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Law · Psychology · Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
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The Relationship Between Patterns of Change in Dynamic Risk and Strength Scores and Reoffending for Men on Community Supervision
The Relevance of Women’s Economic Marginalization to Recidivism
Assessing Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Strength Change Patterns and the Relationship to Reoffending Among Women on Community Supervision
Dynamic Appraisal of Intimate Partner Violence Risk and Need
Does Risk Change Simply Indicate Current Risk for Recidivism or Something More? A Review of the Predictive Value of Intraindividual Change
The Importance of Measuring Offender Change
Risk Assessment and Reassessment
Automating Risk Assessment Instruments and Reliability
Does Change in Risk Matter
A First Step in Understanding Influences on System-Involved Women’s Changes in Financial Need
Automated Offender Risk Assessment
Dynamic risk trajectories, community context, and juvenile recidivism
Risk, Race, and Recidivism
Logistic Regression Models
The Risk Principle in Action
Classification for Effective Rehabilitation
The Psychology of Criminal Conduct
Increasing the Effectiveness of Correctional Programming Through the Risk Principle
Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders
Intensive supervision programs
Violence risk assessment
A Meta-Analysis of the Predictors of Adult Offender Recidivism
Age and the Explanation of Crime
| Unique citing works | 17 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1.7 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2023 (8) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 17 |