A Formulation of Path Dependence with an Empirical Example
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12802456 |
|---|---|
| Authors | J E Jackson (0000-0001-6629-4660, corresponding author), Ken Kollman (0000-0003-2023-0092) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 257-289 |
| Publication date | 2010-12-16 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Quarterly Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1554-0626 • E-ISSN: 1554-0634 |
| Publisher | Now Publishers (PUBLISHER • NL) |
| DOI | 10.1561/100.00010001 |
| OpenAlex | W2055103846 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 19 |
We develop the empirical implications of Page’s (2006) definition of path dependence as a process where the sequence of historical events affects the final outcome. A critical necessary condition for path dependence in common dynamic models is a time-varying autoregressive parameter whose value becomes 1 at some point. Failure to meet this condition results in a path independent process whose equilibrium outcome is only a function of the current exogenous conditions. This condition is illustrated with a discrete Markov Chain model and with a computational model with continuous variables, which are illustrated with models of partisan change. A Monte Carlo simulation shows how non-linear least-squares estimation can recover the parameters that distinguish path dependence from path independence. This integration of modeling and an estimation strategy is illustrated with data on civil rights attitudes and macropartisanship. The results have implications for discussions of path dependence in a wide range of social science fields
Autoregressive model · Econometrics · Economics · Independence (probability theory · Markov chain Monte Carlo · Mathematical economics · Mathematical optimization · Monte Carlo method · Outcome (game theory · Path (computing · Path dependence · Physics · Range (aeronautics · Sequence (biology · Statistical physics · Statistics · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Engineering · Mathematics · Social Capital and Networks · Social Policy and Reform Studies · Applied Mathematics
Essay
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What Moves Macropartisanship? A Response to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler
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Taking Time Seriously
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Macropartisanship
The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship
The Dynamics of Party Identification
Endogenous Preferences and the Study of Institutions
Path dependence in historical sociology
| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2025 (14) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 7 |