Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929237 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sebastian Brune (0000-0001-7794-5465, Universität Hamburg, corresponding author), Johanna Baehr (0000-0003-4696-8941, Universität Hamburg) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Publication date | 2020-01-17 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.637 |
| OpenAlex | W2999461522 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 92 |
On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full‐field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large‐scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models
Abrupt climate change · Atmosphere (unit · Climate change · Climate model · Climate state · Climatology · Data assimilation · Effects of global warming · Geography · Global warming · Hindcast · Initialization · Meteorology · Ocean current · Ocean gyre · Ocean heat content · Predictability · Scale (ratio · Sea surface temperature · Subtropics · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Geology · Oceanography
The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
The ERA‐Interim reanalysis
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years
Data assimilation in the geosciences
Prospects for decadal climate prediction
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,2 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2021 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |