Prospects for decadal climate prediction
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929557 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Noel Keenlyside (0000-0002-8708-6868, Leibniz Institute for Neurobiology, corresponding author), Jin Ba (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 1 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 627-635 |
| Publication date | 2010-08-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.69 |
| OpenAlex | W2123540808 |
| Language | ES |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 39 |
During the last decade, global surface temperatures did not increase as rapidly as in the preceding decades. Although relatively small compared to the observed centennial scale global warming, it has renewed interest in understanding and even predicting climate on time scales of decades, and sparked a community initiative on near‐term prediction that will feature in the fifth intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment report. Decadal prediction, however, is in its infancy, with only a few publications existing. This article has three aims. The first is to make the case for decadal prediction. Decadal fluctuations in global climate similar to that of recent decades were observed during the past century. Associated with large regional changes in precipitation and climate extremes, they are of socioeconomic importance. Climate models, which capture some aspects of observed decadal variability, indicate that such variations might be partly predictable. The second aim is to describe the major challenges to skilful decadal climate prediction. One is poor understanding of mechanisms of decadal climate variability, with climate models showing little agreement. Sparse observations in the past, particularly in the ocean, are also a limiting factor to developing and testing of initialization and prediction systems. The third aim is to stress that despite promising initial results, decadal prediction is in a highly experimental stage, and care is needed in interpreting results and utilizing data from such experiments. In the long‐term, decadal prediction has the potential to improve models, reduce uncertainties in climate change projections, and be of socioeconomic benefit. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models
Abrupt climate change · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Effects of global warming · Geography · Global warming · Initialization · Meteorology · Precipitation · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions
Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts
Does statistical model perform at par with computationally expensive general circulation model for decadal prediction
Can we trust climate models
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Skill and uncertainty in climate models
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,36 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2021 (10) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |