Can we trust climate models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929690 |
|---|---|
| Authors | J C Hargreaves (0000-0002-4217-5023, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, corresponding author), J D Annan (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 435-440 |
| Publication date | 2014-05-28 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.288 |
| OpenAlex | W1901926397 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 28 |
What are the predictions of climate models, should we believe them, and are they falsifiable? Probably the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the prediction that, dependent on the rate of increase of CO 2 emissions, global and annual mean temperature will rise by around 2–4°C over the 21st century. We argue that this result is indeed credible, as are the supplementary predictions that the land will on average warm by around 50% more than the oceans, high latitudes more than the tropics, and that the hydrological cycle will generally intensify. Beyond these and similar broad statements, however, we presently find little evidence of trustworthy predictions at fine spatial scale and annual to decadal timescale from climate models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models
Climate change · Climate model · Climate system · Climatology · Falsifiability · General Circulation Model · Geography · Meteorology · Scale (ratio · Tropics · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Ecology · Geology
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| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,56 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2025 (9) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |