The China Shock
Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12978151 |
|---|---|
| Authors | David H Autor (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), David Autor (0000-0002-6915-9381, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), David Dorn (0000-0002-1827-4734, University of Zurich), Gordon H Hanson (The National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138), Gordon Hanson (0000-0001-5798-140X, University of California San Diego) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 205-240 |
| Publication date | 2016-08-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Annual Review of Economics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1941-1383 • E-ISSN: 1941-1391 |
| Publisher | Annual Reviews (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041 |
| OpenAlex | W1906461530 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 256 |
| References cited | 98 |
China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, is a key item on the research agenda for trade and labor economists
Churning · Real wages · Economic Growth and Productivity · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Global trade and economics
On Trade Justice
Race-to-the-bottom dynamics in industrial land pricing
Tariff nationalism as symptom
Populism
Suicide, overdose and worker exit in a cohort of Michigan autoworkers
Left-behind versus unequal places
Free Traders
China and the United States
The Origins of Inequality
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
Populism and the Economics of Globalization
Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration
Populism and the economics of globalization
Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries
China's overseas lending
Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy
Poverty, depression, and anxiety
The Rise of Populism and the Revenge of the Places That Don’t Matter
Work of the Past, Work of the Future
Adverse Selection in Distributive Politics
Rising Inequality in the Egalitarian Nordics
Geopolitics and Democracy
The backlash of globalization
States Are Not Basic Structures
Electoral Systems, Regional Resentment and the Surprising Success of Anglo-American Populism
Latin America and China
Wither the Trade Regime
Tasks, occupations and slowbalisation
Globalisation at a critical conjuncture
Globalisation, uneven development and the North–South ‘big switch’
The ‘China Shock’ revisited
Revisiting Embedded Liberalism
The Death of the Democratic Advantage
Post-shock resilience and preference for manufacturing? A study on Chinese provinces
Relative Exposure to Negative Economic Shocks, Racial Animus, and Voting
Mudança Tecnológica E Polarização Do Emprego No Brasil
The evolution of the endowment effect
Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective
The role of global value chains for worker tasks and wage inequality
Will falling domestic labor compensation share really be improved when global trade slowdown
From caregiving burden to income transformation
From peace to war
The Jade Straitjacket
The Rule of Law Under Pressure
Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes
International Trade Norms in the Age of Covid-19 Nationalism on the Rise
Backlash Against Globalisation and the Shadow of Phobos
Local Labor Market Alignment of Short-Term Certificate Programs
An early assessment of Covid-19’s impact on tourism in U.S. counties
Productivity effects of internationalisation through the domestic supply chain
Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets
Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market
Industry Mix, Local Labor Markets, and the Incidence of Trade Shocks
Adjusting to Globalization in Germany
Trade liberalisation and the extensive margin of differentiated goods
Is the WTO Passé? The Impact of Multilateral Economic Integration on Agri‐Food Global Value Chains
From Trade to Tensions
Is competition from China so special
China Shock Versus Covid ‐19 Pandemic
Import competition, state‐owned enterprise prevalence and employment
U.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation
Import shock and local labour market outcomes
Brexit
Regulation and income inequality in the United States
Depression of the deprived or eroding enthusiasm of the elites
Indirect effects of trade shocks on Turkish local labor markets
Social Networks and Brexit
Inequality snowballing
How Career Hope and Career Social Support Affect College Students' Career Engagement
Left behind in time
Walls of technology, cracks in employment
The rate and direction of technological change and wealth and income inequalities in advanced countries
Outsourcing
Electoral consequences of globalization for social democratic parties across European regions
Structural unemployment and structural injustice
Worker exit and suicide and overdose mortality in a cohort of male non-metal mine workers
The emergence and politics of polyalignment
Exports and Income Inequality in Mexico
A Manifesto for Social Progress
The Work of the Future
Hollowing out of middle-pay jobs in Ohio
The Decline of the American Family
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
Reconsidering Reparations
Exporting Out of Agriculture
Import Competition, Quality Upgrading, and Exporting
Who Drives the Security Narrative in US Trade Policy
Geoökonomie als Ende des Neoliberalismus
The AI infrastructure triad in regional governance
The disconnects between trade policy and the rhetoric of inclusive trade December 2025
The EU as a global actor in the geoeconomic age
Understanding of Trade
Lobbying Behind the Frontier
Between communism and capitalism
Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband expansion in France
World Changes in Inequality
Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world
Racial and Class Inequality in US Incarceration in the Early Twenty-First Century
The Topography of Subnational Inequality
The Contribution of National Income Inequality to Regional Economic Divergence
Changes in the Wage Structure and Earnings Inequality
Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization
Technology, Geography, and Trade
Regional Effects of Trade Reform
Foreign direct investment and relative wages
Trade Adjustment
Growing Like China
Regional Evolutions
What Explains the 2007-2009 Drop in Employment?
The Rise of the East and the Far East: German Labor Markets and Trade Integration
Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment
The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment
The Chinese Economy. Transitions and Growth
Industry-Specific Human Capital
The Wage Effects of Offshoring
Survival of the best fit
The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages
From Divergence to Convergence
What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns
New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?
The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill
Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change
Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s
The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity
The China Syndrome
How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes
Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries
Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s
Estimating the Impact of Trade and Offshoring on American Workers using the Current Population Surveys
Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive
International competition and industrial evolution
Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing
Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity
Do Differences in the Exposure to Chinese Imports Lead to Differences in Local Labour Market Outcomes? An Analysis for Spanish Provinces
Urban Decline and Durable Housing
The Competitive Saving Motive
Untangling Trade and Technology
Trade Imbalances, Export Structure and Wage Inequality
The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market
Policy Watch
Are Your Wages Set in Beijing
Understanding China's Growth
The End of Cheap Chinese Labor
US Manufacturing
Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy
Does Competition from China Raise the Probability of Becoming Unemployed? An Analysis Using Spanish Workers' Micro-Data
| Unique citing works | 256 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 25,6 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2027 (12) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 251 |