Did Ohio’s Vaccine Lottery Increase Vaccination Rates? A Pre-Registered, Synthetic Control Study
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 13015669 |
|---|---|
| Authors | David Lang (0000-0001-5415-0125, Stanford University, corresponding author), Lief Esbenshade (0000-0003-1549-9337, Stanford University), R Willer (0000-0003-3404-6472, Stanford University) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 242-260 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-07 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Experimental Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2052-2630 • E-ISSN: 2052-2649 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/xps.2021.32 |
| OpenAlex | W4210862830 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 50 |
Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is critical to containing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. To increase vaccination rates, the State of Ohio launched a million dollar lottery in May 2021. Following a pre-registered analysis, we estimate the effects of Ohio’s lottery program Vax-a-Million on COVID-19 vaccination rates by comparing it to a “synthetic control” composed of eight other states. We find a statistically insignificant 1.3% decrease in the full vaccination rate in Ohio at the end of the lottery period. We investigate the robustness of our conclusion to model specifications through a multiverse analysis of 216 possible models, including longer time periods and alternative vaccination measures. The majority (88%) find small negative effects in line with the results of our pre-registered model. While our results are most consistent with a decrease in vaccination rate, they do not allow a firm conclusion on whether the lottery increased or decreased vaccine uptake
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Econometrics · Economics · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Liberian dollar · Lottery · Pandemic · Sociology · Statistics · Vaccination · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Influenza Virus Research Studies · Mathematics · Medicine · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Finance · Internal Medicine · Virology
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| Citations per year | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2025 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |