A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality

Datos Bibliográficos

ID13036602
AutoresJohn R Wilmoth (University of California, Berkeley, autor de correspondencia), Nobuko Mizoguchi (University of Colorado Boulder), Mikkel Z Oestergaard (World Health Organization - Pakistan), Lale Say (0000-0002-1377-1328, World Health Organization - Pakistan), Clay Mathers (0000-0002-0617-6731, World Health Organization - Pakistan), Sarah Zureick‐brown (Emory University), Mie Inoue (World Health Organization - Pakistan), Doris Chou (0000-0003-0250-4010, World Health Organization - Pakistan)
Año2012
Volumen3
Número2
Fecha de publicación2012-01-13
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaStatistics Politics and Policy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 2151-7509 • E-ISSN: 2194-6299
EditorialDe Gruyter (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.1515/2151-7509.1038
PMID24416714
OpenAlexW2056053506
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas13
Referencias citadas8

Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use of statistical models to obtain estimates for most countries. In this paper we describe a new method for estimating global levels and trends in maternal mortality. For countries lacking adequate data for direct calculation of estimates, we employed a parametric model that separates maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS from all others. For maternal deaths unrelated to HIV/AIDS, the model consists of a hierarchical linear regression with three predictors and variable intercepts for both countries and regions. The uncertainty of estimates was assessed by simulating the estimation process, accounting for variability both in the data and in other model inputs. The method was used to obtain the most recent set of UN estimates, published in September 2010. Here, we provide a concise description and explanation of the approach, including a new analysis of the components of variability reflected in the uncertainty intervals. Final estimates provide evidence of a more rapid decline in the global maternal mortality ratio than suggested by previous work, including another study published in April 2010. We compare findings from the two recent studies and discuss topics for further research to help resolve differences

Developing country · Econometrics · Economic growth · Economics · Environmental health · Estimation · Geography · Millennium Development Goals · Multilevel model · Parametric statistics · Population · Regression analysis · Statistics · Child Nutrition and Water Access · Demography · Global Maternal and Child Health · HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses · Mathematics · Medicine