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From Archives to Artifacts

A Forensic Analysis of Noisy Data

Bibliographic Data

ID13100232
AuthorsDwayne Woods (0000-0002-7033-794X, Purdue University West Lafayette, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume11
Issue1
Pages2-37
Publication date2025-08-05
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueChinese Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2365-4252 • E-ISSN: 2365-4244
PublisherSpringer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.1007/s41111-025-00309-y
OpenAlexW4412993897
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited29

This paper presents a forensic analysis of a dataset used by Boix to argue that imperial legal emancipation contributed to the spread of Jewish national identity by establishing Zionist and Hebrew institutions. We demonstrate that, although the dataset is extensive, it is logically inconsistent, fragmented over time, and geographically incoherent. Despite claims of establishing cause-and-effect, the data’s structure prevents such conclusions. Using only the most organized variables in a simulation, we demonstrate that even sophisticated machine learning models cannot accurately find the pattern without creating false signals. The main point of this paper is simple: messy historical data that is layered, repetitive, and poorly organized cannot produce clear empirical results. This work adds to the growing field of quantitative history by providing both a critique and a practical guide for maintaining data quality in historical social science

Archaeology · Data science · Forensic science · Computational and Text Analysis Methods · Computer Science · Forensic and Genetic Research · Generative Adversarial Networks and Image Synthesis · History

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    Open Access•Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill•Data Analysis Using Regression…•2006

  • Causality

    Open Access•Judea Pearl•Causality•2009

  • Measurement error and the replication crisis

    Open Access•Eric Loken, Andrew Gelman•Science•2017

  • Collinearity

    Open Access•Carsten F Dormann, Jane Elith et al.•Ecography•2013

  • Manipulation Testing Based on Density Discontinuity

    Open Access•Matias D Cattaneo, Michael Jansson et al.•The Stata Journal: Promoting…•2018

  • Inference and missing data

    Donald B Rubin•Biometrika•1976

  • Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs

    Open Access•Sebastian Calonico, Matias D Cattaneo et al.•Econometrica•2014

  • Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design

    Open Access•Justin McCrary•Journal of Econometrics•2008

  • Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error

    James J Heckman•Econometrica•1979

  • Regression discontinuity designs

    Open Access•Guido W Imbens, Thomas Lemieux•Journal of Econometrics•2008

  • Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics

    David S Lee, Thomas Lemieux•Journal of Economic Literature•2010

  • There is No Pearl in this Zionist Oyster

    Open Access•Dwayne Woods•Chinese Political Science Review•2025

  • The use, abuse and omertà on the “noise” in the data

    Dwayne Woods•Canadian Journal of Development…•2014

  • Statistical Models and Shoe Leather

    David A Freedman•Sociological Methodology•1991

  • Political Emancipation and Modern Jewish National Identity

    Open Access•Carles Boix•American Political Science Review•2025

  • Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities

    Open Access•Luke Keele, Luke J Keele et al.•Political Analysis•2015

  • The Statistics of Causal Inference

    Open Access•Luke Keele•Political Analysis•2015

  • Lines of Demarcation

    Open Access•Matthew Adam Kocher, Nuno P Monteiro•Perspectives on Politics•2016

  • Phantom Counterfactuals

    Open Access•Tara Slough•American Journal of Political…•2023

  • When Natural Experiments Are Neither Natural nor Experiments

    Open Access•Jasjeet S Sekhon, Rocío Titiunik•American Political Science Review•2012

Citations per year1
Citation span2026 - 2026 (1)
Highly citedNo

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