Sars-CoV-2 Infections and Covid-19 Fatality

Estimation of Infection Fatality Ratio and Current Prevalence

Bibliographic Data

ID15463563
AuthorsMarco Pota (0000-0001-6825-6393, Institute for High Performance Computing and Networking, corresponding author), Andrea Pota (UOC Nefrologia e Dialisi Ospedale del Mare, 80147 Napoli, Italy), Maria Luisa Sirico (UOC Nefrologia e Dialisi Ospedale del Mare, 80147 Napoli, Italy), Massimo Esposito (0000-0002-7196-7994, Institute for High Performance Computing and Networking)
Year2020
Volume17
Issue24
Pages9290-9290
Publication date2020-12-11
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph17249290
PMID33322572
OpenAlexW3111006708
LanguageEN
References cited31

COVID-19 is one of the most important problems for public health, according to the number of deaths associated to this pathology reported so far. However, from the epidemiological point of view, the dimension of the problem is still unknown, since the number of actual cases of SARS-CoV-2 infected people is underestimated, due to limited testing. This paper aims at estimating the actual Infection Fatality Ratio (number of deaths with respect to the number of infected people) and the actual current prevalence (number of infected people with respect to the entire population), both in a specific population and all over the world. With this aim, this paper proposes a method to estimate Infection Fatality Ratio of a still ongoing infection, based on a daily estimation, and on the relationship between this estimation and the number of tests performed per death. The method has been applied using data about COVID-19 from Italy. Results show a fatality ratio of about 0.9%, which is lower than previous findings. The number of actual infected people in Italy is also estimated, and results show that (i) infection started at the end of January 2020; (ii) a maximum number of about 100,000 new cases in one day was reached at the beginning of March 2020; (iii) the estimated cumulative number of infections at the beginning of October 2020 is about 4.2 million cases in Italy (more than 120 million worldwide, if a generalization is conjectured as reasonable). Therefore, the prevalence at the beginning of October 2020 is estimated at about 6.9% in Italy (1.6% worldwide, if a generalization is conjectured)

Case fatality rate · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Disease · Environmental health · Estimation · Generalization · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Pandemic · Pathology · Population · Public health · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Mathematics · Medicine · SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research · Epidemiology · Internal Medicine

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