Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China

A Population-Based Study

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15467379
AutoresChangyu Fan (0000-0001-7785-5750, Central China Normal University), Linping Liu (0000-0003-0082-5531, Hangzhou Normal University, autor correspondente), Wei Guo (0000-0002-4888-4816, Nanjing University), Anuo Yang (Nanjing University), Chenchen Ye (0009-0007-5318-2265, Nanjing University), Maitixirepu Jilili (0000-0002-0906-5025, Nanjing University), Meina Ren (Nanjing University), Peng Xu (0000-0002-6964-1274, Wuhan University), Hexing Long (Minzu University of China), Yufan Wang (0000-0001-9614-3986, Central China Normal University)
Ano2020
Volume17
Fascículo5
Páginas1679-1679
Data de publicação2020-03-04
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditoraMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph17051679
PMID32143519
OpenAlexW3009273829
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas17
Referências citadas17

After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions

China · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Distribution (mathematics · Geography · Outbreak · Population · Socioeconomics · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 impact on air quality · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Demography · Medicine