Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15469520
AutoresHugo Pedder (0000-0002-7813-3749, University of Bristol), Thandi Kapwata (0000-0003-2518-6764, South African Medical Research Council), Guy Howard (0000-0002-1848-9807, University of Bristol), Rajen N Naidoo (0000-0002-2318-4004, University of KwaZulu-Natal), Zamantimande Kunene (0000-0001-5655-5556, South African Medical Research Council), Richard W Morris (0000-0002-5018-1239, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Bristol BS8 2PN, UK), Richard Morris (0000-0003-0208-8440, University of Bristol), Angela Mathee (0000-0002-0060-829X, South African Medical Research Council), Caradee Y Wright (0000-0001-9608-818X, South African Medical Research Council, autor correspondente)
Ano2021
Volume18
Fascículo12
Páginas6191-6191
Data de publicação2021-06-08
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditoraMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph18126191
PMID34201085
OpenAlexW3166728057
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas4
Referências citadas28

Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in South Africa. Climate change could potentially affect its incidence via changes in meteorological conditions. We investigated the delayed effects of temperature and relative humidity on pneumonia hospital admissions at two large public hospitals in Limpopo province, South Africa. Using 4062 pneumonia hospital admission records from 2007 to 2015, a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate temperature-lag and relative humidity-lag pneumonia relationships. Mean temperature, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range were all significantly associated with pneumonia admissions. Cumulatively across the 21-day period, higher mean daily temperature (30 °C relative to 21 °C) was most strongly associated with a decreased rate of hospital admissions (relative rate ratios (RR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14-0.82), whereas results were suggestive of lower mean daily temperature (12 °C relative to 21 °C) being associated with an increased rate of admissions (RR: 1.27, 95%CI: 0.75-2.16). Higher relative humidity (>80%) was associated with fewer hospital admissions while low relative humidity (<30%) was associated with increased admissions. A proportion of pneumonia admissions were attributable to changes in meteorological variables, and our results indicate that even small shifts in their distributions (e.g., due to climate change) could lead to substantial changes in their burden. These findings can inform a better understanding of the health implications of climate change and the burden of hospital admissions for pneumonia now and in the future

Apparent temperature · Climatology · Confidence interval · Distributed lag · Geography · Incidence (geometry · Maximum temperature · Meteorology · Pneumonia · Rate ratio · Relative humidity · Relative risk · Statistics · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Mathematics · Medicine · Internal Medicine