Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15499691 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jiyun Jung (0000-0002-8235-0316, Seoul National University), Jae Young Lee (0000-0002-2164-1195, Seoul National University), Hyewon Lee (0000-0002-5960-535X, Seoul National University), Ho Kim (0000-0001-7472-3752, Seoul National University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 2600-2600 |
| Publication date | 2020-04-10 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph17072600 |
| PMID | 32290146 |
| OpenAlex | W3015432337 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 36 |
As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM 10 ) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM 10 . We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003-2012), 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2080s (2076-2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM 10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM 10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m 3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM 10 concentrations above 65 μg/m 3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM 10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM 10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers
Air pollutants · Air pollution · Atmospheric sciences · Baseline (sea · Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Confidence interval · Econometrics · Effect modification · Environmental health · Particulates · Pollutant · Quantile · Representative Concentration Pathways · Statistics · Surface air temperature · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Chemistry · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Mathematics · Medicine · Ecology
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| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Highly cited | No |