Modeling and Forecasting the Covid-19 Temporal Spread in Greece
An Exploratory Approach Based on Complex Network Defined Splines
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15500980 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Konstantinos Demertzis (0000-0003-1330-5228, International Hellenic University, corresponding author), Dimitrios Tsiotas (0000-0003-3510-8823, Agricultural University of Athens), L Magafas (0000-0002-8253-9653, International Hellenic University) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 13 |
| Pages | 4693-4693 |
| Publication date | 2020-06-30 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | PREPRINT |
| Venue | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph17134693 |
| PMID | 32629791 |
| OpenAlex | W3021228762 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 33 |
Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management of the available health resources
Conceptualization · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Data mining · Data science · Disease · Econometrics · Economics · Exploratory data analysis · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Operations research · Public health · Reliability (semiconductor · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance · Engineering · Medicine · Artificial Intelligence
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A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing Covid-19 Dynamics in Europe
Side-Effects of Public Health Policies Against Covid-19
Discovering spatial-temporal patterns via complex networks in investigating Covid-19 pandemic in the United States
Examining the relationship between regional economic resilience and epidemiologic spread of Covid-19
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2020 - 2023 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |