A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing Covid-19 Dynamics in Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15510428 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yiannis Contoyiannis (0000-0001-5640-0255, University of West Attica), Stavros G Stavrinides (0000-0001-8484-1402, International Hellenic University, corresponding author), M P Hanias (0000-0002-0918-9343, International Hellenic University), Myron Kampitakis (0000-0002-7162-5599, Major Network Installations Dept, Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator SA, 18547 Athens, Greece), Pericles Papadopoulos (0000-0002-8268-253X, University of West Attica), Rodrigo Picos (0000-0002-9167-6422, Universitat de les Illes Balears), Stelios M Potirakis (0000-0001-5928-4587, University of West Attica) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 18 |
| Pages | 6525-6525 |
| Publication date | 2020-09-08 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph17186525 |
| PMID | 32911647 |
| OpenAlex | W3084116441 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 34 |
The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general-even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19-further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Dynamics (music · Outbreak · Physics · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Statistical physics · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Medicine · Mental Health Research Topics · Virology
Modelling the Covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
Networks and epidemic models
Self-organized criticality
Spread and dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy
Early dynamics of transmission and control of Covid-19
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak
Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
Modeling and Forecasting the Covid-19 Temporal Spread in Greece
| Citations per year | 0.75 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2024 (3) |
| Highly cited | No |