Naive Forecast for Covid-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15507002 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Fares Qeadan (0000-0002-3376-220X, University of Utah), Trenton Honda (0000-0003-4620-5717, University of Utah, corresponding author), Lisa H Gren (0000-0002-5868-3292, University of Utah), Jennifer Dailey-Provost (0000-0002-2317-9184, University of Utah), L Scott Benson (0000-0002-4252-9434, University of Utah), James A Vanderslice (0000-0003-0008-6353, University of Utah), Christina A Porucznik (0000-0003-1973-2917, University of Utah), Abigail B Waters (0000-0003-2732-5529, University of Utah), Steven Lacey (University of Utah), Kimberley Shoaf (0000-0001-6754-2216, University of Utah) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Pages | 2750-2750 |
| Publication date | 2020-04-16 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph17082750 |
| PMID | 32316165 |
| OpenAlex | W3016393085 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 1 |
Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Context (archaeology · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Geography · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Outbreak · Pandemic · Public health · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Advanced Statistical Methods and Models · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance · Demography · Medicine · Virology
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2020 - 2025 (6) |
| Highly cited | No |