Attribution of observed pan-Arctic extreme fire events to anthropogenic forcings

Bibliographic Data

ID15544693
AuthorsLukas Fiedler (0009-0006-8927-2396, Universität Hamburg, corresponding author), Armineh Barkhordarian (0000-0001-9786-8081, Universität Hamburg), Victor Brovkin (0000-0001-6420-3198, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), Johanna Baehr (0000-0003-4696-8941, Universität Hamburg)
Year2026
Volume21
Issue6
Pages064001-064001
Publication date2026-03-04
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ae4d64
OpenAlexW7133541751
LanguageEN
References cited74

Over the past two decades, the pan-Arctic has experienced rapid climatic change, accompanied by an unprecedented rise in extreme wildfire activity. However, a systematic and regionally comprehensive assessment of the recent extreme fire events in the pan-Arctic and the role played by human emissions is still pending. In this study, we apply a probability-based extreme event attribution framework to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in enabling the extreme pan-Arctic wildfire seasons of 2019, 2020, and 2021. Using large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 2, capable of isolating anthropogenic climate forcings, alongside remote sensing burned area products and ERA5 reanalysis, we assess both magnitude (burned area) and extreme fire risk (Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, FWI). Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic forcings were a necessary condition for the occurrence of these extreme events: the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) exceeded 0.75 for burned area and reached virtual certainty (FAR > 0.99) for FWI in 2020 and 2021. However, the probability of sufficient causation remained low, highlighting that anthropogenic forcings alone are not enough to guarantee such extreme wildfire events. Risk ratios (RRs) indicate that recent extremes have become over 200 times more likely compared to a climate without anthropogenic influence (RR = 235 [5%–95% CI: 98–489], in 2021). By decomposing FWI, we show that temperature and humidity dominate the recent increase in fire weather risk, supported by a substantial elevation in vapor pressure deficit over the pan-Arctic region

Climate change · Climate extremes · Climate model · Extreme weather · Global warming · Fire Detection and Safety Systems · Fire effects on ecosystems · Knowledge Management and Technology

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