High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544849 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nicole S Lovenduski (0000-0001-5893-1009, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, corresponding author), Gordon B Bonan (0000-0003-0830-6437, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Stephen Yeager (0009-0000-5990-9858), Stephen G Yeager (0000-0003-0268-9895, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Keith Lindsay (0000-0002-3672-1665, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Danica Lombardozzi (0000-0003-3557-7929, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124074-124074 |
| Publication date | 2019-11-27 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55 |
| OpenAlex | W2990751658 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 31 |
Interannual variations in the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between the land surface and the atmosphere are the dominant component of interannual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Here, we investigate the potential to predict variations in these terrestrial carbon fluxes 1–10 years in advance using a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. We demonstrate that globally-integrated net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibits high potential predictability for 2 years following forecast initialization. This predictability exceeds that from a persistence or uninitialized forecast conducted with the same Earth system model. The potential predictability in NEP derives mainly from high predictability in ecosystem respiration, which itself is driven by vegetation carbon and soil moisture initialization. Our findings unlock the potential to forecast the terrestrial ecosystem in a changing environment
Atmosphere (unit · Atmospheric sciences · Carbon cycle · Carbon dioxide · Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere · Carbon flux · Climatology · Earth system science · Ecosystem · Geography · Initialization · Meteorology · Predictability · Statistics · Terrestrial ecosystem · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Ecology · Geology · Oceanography
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
The Community Earth System Model
The Community Earth System Model (Cesm) Large Ensemble Project
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis
Uncertainty in climate change projections
Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |