Uncertainty in climate change projections
The role of internal variability
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23333346 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Clara Deser (0000-0002-5517-9103, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, corresponding author), Adam Phillips, A S Phillips (0000-0003-4859-8585, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Vincent Bourdette (NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Haiyan Teng (0000-0001-6839-0672, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue | 3-4 |
| Pages | 527-546 |
| Publication date | 2012-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Climate Dynamics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0930-7575 • E-ISSN: 1432-0894 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x |
| OpenAlex | W1974470230 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 74 |
| References cited | 45 |
Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.
Atmospheric Circulation · Atmospheric model · Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Forcing (mathematics) · Geography · Greenhouse gas · Meteorology · Precipitation · Teleconnection · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability
Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference
Bridging the gap between an applied map and scientific needs
Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia
The Community Earth System Model (Cesm) Large Ensemble Project
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation
On predicting climate under climate change
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Temporal hydrological drought clustering varies with climate and land-surface processes
Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice
Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets
Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change
Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output
Biases in Enso response to greenhouse warming induced by ensemble-mean detrending in large ensemble simulations
Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing
Arctic moisture source for Eurasian snow cover variations in autumn
The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles
Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends
Identifying the evolving human imprint on heat wave trends over the United States and Mexico
Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change
Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
Global assessment of interannual variability in coastal urban areas and ecosystems
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia
CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks
Internal variability and temperature scaling of future sub-daily rainfall return levels over Europe
Detection and attribution of extreme precipitation changes over India
Early and widespread emergence of regional warming is robust to observational and model uncertainty
Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
A deep learning based classification of atmospheric circulation types over Europe
Emulating climate extreme indices
Climate nonlinearities
Diagnosing observed extratropical stationary wave changes in boreal winter
Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production
Half of the world’s population experience robust changes in the water cycle for a 2 °C warmer world
The signature of internal variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle
The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades
High-resolution models better simulate historical snowpack declines in the Upper Colorado River Basin
The impact of internal climate variability on OH trends between 2005 and 2014
High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system
A simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands
Getting caught with our plants down
Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting
Unraveling uncertainties in near-term runoff projections across Europe
Projected changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed in 1.5 °C–4.0 °C global warming levels
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere
Spatiotemporal characteristics of the time of emergence for anthropogenic tropospheric temperature changes based on the CMIP6 multi-model results
Role of the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasian-like pattern on the near future warming rate of East Asian surface temperature
Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate
CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability
Additional contributions to CMIP5 regional sea level projections resulting from Greenland and Antarctic ice mass loss
The contribution of anthropogenic influence to more anomalous extreme precipitation in Europe
Climate‐related risks in financial assets
Projected Global Loss of Mammal Habitat Due to Land-Use and Climate Change
Climate Change and the Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Aviation
Effects of Nonstationarity of Extreme Wind Speeds and Ground Snow Loads in a Future Canadian Changing Climate
Predictability, uncertainty and decision making
Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions
Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years
Indian summer monsoon
Governing and managing water resources under changing hydro-climatic contexts
Ozone-aerosol and land use reversed temperature increase over some northern mid-latitude regions between the 20th century and the Little Ice Age based on the Cesm-LME
More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance
Agricultural Producers’ Views of Climate Change in the Canadian Prairies
Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century
Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts
Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions
Climate Sensitivity through the Lens of Measurement Practice
Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science
| Unique citing works | 74 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,93 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2026 (16) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 71 |